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Expert forecasting

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Experts, expert consensus and society

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The Good Judgment Project
Expert forecasting
Don't Feed the Thought Leaders | Hacker News
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467999
Expert forecasting
Don’t Feed the Thought Leaders - Earthly Blog
https://earthly.dev/blog/thought-leaders/
Expert forecasting Software concepts, architecture, design patterns, conventions and style
Opinion | This Is a Weirder Moment Than You Think - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/19/opinion/its-not-the-future-we-cant-see.html
2000 Bush v Gore 2021 January 6 inquiry Artificial general intelligence (AGI)Expert forecasting Fox News Unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)
Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs - The Long Now
https://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/
Expert forecasting
Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World: David Epstein: 9780735214484: Amazon.com: Books
https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0735214484/theatla05-20/
Expert forecasting
Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/
Articles in the Atlantic Expert forecasting Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)Julian Simon Paul R Ehrlich Paul Sabin Philip E Tetlock The Good Judgment Project
World will face "more intense and cascading global challenges" over next two decades, U.S. intelligence report warns - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/intelligence-report-warns-of-more-intense-global-challenges/
Expert forecasting
‘At first I thought, this is crazy’: the real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war | Books | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jun/26/project-cassandra-plan-to-use-novels-to-predict-next-war
2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Algeria Boko Haram Expert forecasting